NEWS

In the used car market of Europe’s top five countries (Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy and Spain) plus Belgium, you can see from the INDICATA data in the chart above that used diesel car sales have been steadily losing market share to petrol cars since July 2019. When you factor in our other article on new car sales trends, supply will significantly reduce over the coming months and years but using INDICATA data we can see that demand is still there.
Used diesel car sales appeared to close the gap a little in September mainly due to used diesel fleet vehicles in the used car market. Petrol has now reversed the move to diesel and shows no sign of losing the top position in the next 4-5 years.



Gap between used diesel and petrol sales grows
The gap between used diesel and used petrol car sales was 1:1.01 in October 2018 according to INDICATA. Just one year later and it is 1:1.10 a 9% increase in just 12 months. The ratio is set to continue to widen, driven by the reduced supply from the new car market, but also due to demand changes, particularly amongst buyers of younger used vehicles who are making similar decisions on powertrain to new car buyers, particularly where they live near the growing number of clean air zones.
The total online B2C used car market is up 9.4% in October year-on-year. Despite diesel losing market share it still saw a 4.2% increase in volume with used petrol car sales up 13.1% over the same period.

Used hybrid sales grow by an additional 8,742 cars
The growth in new hybrid sales over the last few years is also now impacting the used car market with hybrid sales up from a 1.6% market share in October 2018 to 2.2% one year later. In volume terms that’s an increase of 50.3% or an additional 8,742 used hybrid cars.
With new car sales of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) falling we could see used PHEV values starting to rise as increased demand is met with a reduced supply.

Used EVs volumes rise by 55.5%
Over the last 12 months EVs haven’t managed to take more than a 0.4% market share. Whilst there is only a relatively small supply of used EVs available, due to limited sales in the new car market, the reality seems to be that demand is also low. In growth terms the volume of EVs sold in the online B2C used car market has risen by 55.5%, but that still equates to just 5,195 cars sold across the six countries in October 2019. 
We have seen the new car market hit by yet more bad diesel media coverage and legislative actions but INDICATA’s data is showing demand for used diesel cars remains strong. You will need to subscribe to INDICATA’s data to get the full lowdown but used diesel car sales are rising.
Used diesel prices are actually outperforming used petrol prices over the last 12 months in Germany, France, Spain and Belgium, and in all six markets reviewed in this article used diesel car stock levels are selling faster than used petrol car stock.

Andy Shields has been appointed as business unit director of INDICATA, the global leaders in used vehicle pricing and market analysis.
Andy will have responsibility for INDICATA which is currently in 14 countries.
Andy said, ‘I am very familiar with INDICATA having used it extensively throughout my career both during my time at Avis Europe and whilst consulting for OEMs and major dealer groups.’

Supporting asset managers implement change
‘As a global leader in real time, used car pricing it is not just about data provision but supporting asset managers to implement ongoing pricing management, where the whole organisation embraces and executes it from sales executives to the CEO,’ he added.

Full data integration with Sofico
Andy recently supported VW Bank GmbH leasing company VWFS Ireland’s adoption of Sofico’s Miles lease management system.
Andy said: ‘As I join INDICATA, I am delighted we have announced full data integration into Sofico across all 14 countries. This contributes real time pricing insights at individual vehicle and portfolio levels for Sofico leasing and finance customers.’
Prior to joining INDICATA, Andy held roles such as director of fleet and remarketing at Avis Europe, VP sales and supply for an online car supermarket, and spent 10 years consulting for OEMs, dealer groups and leasing companies.

INDICATA transforms used-car decision making power
Peter Grøftehauge, Autorola Group’s CEO said: “INDICATA has made excellent inroads into providing data that transforms company’s business revenues and used car decision-making power.
‘Andy’s vast experience in used cars, e-commerce and finance means he has a perfect combination of skills for his new role as head of INDICATA.”

For more information, please contact Andrew Shields, Business , Mobile: +44 0 77 75 844 311, Email: ads@indicata.com

In the first 9 months of 2019 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) sales grew in Europe by 93.1% but this still equates to just 2.1% of the total new car market. Hybrid vehicles have also grown by a healthy 42.7% in the first half of 2019 and now account for just over 5.5% of new car sales.
Other powertrains such as Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) have seen their market share hold at around 1.6%, mainly due to its popularity in Italy. However, Plug-in Hybrid EVs (PHEVs) have seen sales drop by 12.7%, accounting for just 1% of the new car market across Europe for the first 9 months of 2019. The decline in demand from fleet operators is part of the reason.

Fleets see increased costs of fuelling PHEVs
Several countries have or had a beneficial taxation system for company drivers choosing a PHEV over a diesel vehicle, making them a popular choice from a personal perspective. However, fleet operators noticed a significant increase in fuel costs as drivers were commonly not charging them, just using them as a petrol vehicle. This meant cars were performing worse than a straight petrol version of the car as the PHEV also boasted added battery weight.
Feedback from auction houses like Autorola confirmed that many PHEVs were coming off fleet having never been charged and with the charging cable still in its original sealed bag.

Bristol city centre moves sets a worrying precedent
On 5th November the UK port town of Bristol became Europe’s first city to approve a ban on all privately-owned diesel cars from 2021 between the hours of 7am and 3pm every day.
Whilst Clean Air Zones (CAZs) are appearing across Europe, the difference here is that the local council has not distinguished the considerable difference between old, high emission diesels of the past and new, clean, Euro 6 engines with little to no NOx and low CO2 emissions. The full details of the fines and charges have yet to be published but the ban includes parts of the city centre as well as the nearby M32 motorway.
We will need to wait until February 2020 to see if the national government approves the business plan, which is predicted to cost £113.5 million, but it does set a worrying precedent.



INDICATA sees impact on new and used diesel market
Some cities already have bans or restrictions on older diesel cars, pre-Euro 6, whilst Oslo has legislation in place to ban all diesel cars from certain roads on days with acute levels of air pollution. This progression to a blanket ban on all diesels will impact the new and used diesel car market as INDICATA data is seeing.
Despite reports and data about how clean the latest Euro 6 diesel engines are, the press continues to use the phrase “Dirty Diesel” with gusto, whilst politicians and lobbyists continue to talk about introducing more clean air zones. The message received by many drivers and consumers is a clear one to “not buy diesel.”
The high-level view is that drivers would choose electric or hybrid vehicles, the reality is most lost diesel sales have gone to petrol engine cars.

The increased number of new hybrid and EV cars registered over the past few years is now flowing through into the used car market according to the latest market insights data from Indicata for the five largest European countries plus Belgium.
Stock levels of hybrids have jumped 72% in the last twelve months whilst EV stock levels have more than doubled, jumping 220% although both are seeing longer stocking days as demand fails to keep up with supply.

Used diesels/petrol demand outweighs EVs/hybrids
When combining Indicata sales and stock data there is good EV and hybrid availability, but demand remains strongest for the traditional internal combustion engine.
Data from October 2018 to September 2019 shows online B2C used car stock levels are up 4.9% across all powertrains in September 2019 compared to the same period last year.

Dealers de-stock used diesels at a fast rate
Dealers appear to be de-stocking used diesel cars at a faster rate than demand is changing, but diesel remains the fastest selling powertrain. Used petrol car stock has also risen by 14% as dealers move away from used diesels.
Used car prices and demand for used diesels is still relatively strong according to Indicata, however, dealer stock levels are down 7.5% in September 2019 compared with 2018.

Petrol accounts for 51.6% of used stock
Used diesel cars now comprise just 43.8% of online B2C used car stock, versus 49.7% 12 months ago while used petrol car stock now accounts for 51.6% of Europe’s total used stock.
While it may seem a logical move for dealers to de-stock used diesel cars the reality is there are only enough used diesel cars to cover 58.9 days of demand at current run rates compared to 63.1 days of used petrol cars.

Whilst the five largest car markets are key countries to track across the industry for the major international automotive companies, it is also worth monitoring trends across the rest of Europe. A sneak preview at INDICATA’s average stock days by age across multiple markets shows the diversity of stock across Europe.
The next three largest car markets in Europe after the big five and in order of forecast new car sales for 2019 are Poland, Belgium and the Netherlands where a combined 1.46 million new cars are likely to be sold this year, which is more than Spain. These three countries account for significant amounts of used car exports and, in the case of Poland, also imports across the whole of Europe.



Considerable disparity across smaller markets
There is considerable disparity across these smaller markets. Austria, the Netherlands and Sweden have significant levels of younger aged stock of one to two-year-old used vehicles compared to Belgium and Poland where it is the 25 to 36-month-old vehicles which are currently proving the hardest to sell.
Before considering cross-border trading between any market it is a key requirement to understand if you are moving stock into or out of a country at the right time. Whilst you may consider this is possible to do at a very high level, the INDICATA data shows that once you start dissecting different markets by vehicle age, segment type, fuel, body style and make or model mistakes can be made, and opportunities missed.
The daily rental market in Spain and the fleet markets in countries like Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK export tens and even hundreds of thousands of used cars each year and identifying where the biggest demand could be for a particular vehicle could transform a company’s bottom line profitability.