NEWS

INDICATA celebrates the launch of its new Forecasting product

Written by Autorola in category 
December 12, 2023

 

The Netherlands has published a new White Paper that predicts how a peak in Tesla Model 3s registered in 2019 will impact the used market during 2024 and 2025

Our new INDICATA Forecasting product is set to be launched in Europe during 2024 which aims to support major fleets, banks, finance houses and dealer groups in proactively identifying and then managing the impact of future residual value trends.

 

The Netherlands has recently used its powerful data to confirm that past registration peaks of the Mitsubishi Outlander and Tesla Model S have led to oversupply of used cars in the future market. This oversupply happened typically around five years after the peak and there is a strong correlation with a fall in used prices.

 

The most recent example of this trend is the large number of Tesla Model 3s that were registered in 2019 in The Netherlands that are expected to hit the used market starting in 2024 and peaking during 2025.

 

Negative pressure on prices

As the price of used BEVs has already dropped significantly in the country over the last 12 months, we expect an additional negative pressure of up to 25 per cent on Tesla Model 3 used values.

 

This impact is expected to be tempered by the intense competitiveness of Teslas in the used market relative to their ICE competitors. The oversupply in The Netherlands will potentially result in the export of used Teslas into other European markets that have a more mature demand from private customers for zero emission vehicles.

 

Creating the Tesla Model 3 factor

In our INDICATA Forecasting model we created the “Tesla Model 3” factor which consists of three tiers with each separate one having an impact of different kinds on used BEVs. This impact starts just before the major de-fleet of Tesla Model 3 at the end of 2024 and is set to impact the BEVs for approximately 12 months.

 

Graph 6 shows the life cycle decay of the different tiers. The upcoming peak for the Tesla Model 3s will have a major impact on the residual values of the car. Due to the huge number of cars returning from lease contracts, the entire electric car market will be impacted not just that of the Tesla Model 3.

 

Reviewing and analysing prices and supply

We plan to constantly review and analyse relative prices and supply over the coming months and years.

 

A full copy of the 13-page white paper entitled Assessing the future impact of Tesla Model 3 de-fleet volumes is available by contacting Frank Tanke, Netherlands Country Manager on ft@autorola.nl or the INDICATA NL support team at support@indicata.nl.

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