Supply and demand provide ‘stability’ to diesel market

Written by Dean Bowkett in category 
September 17, 2019

The limited supply of diesel cars coming into the market is good news for sellers of used diesel cars. Whilst demand for new and used diesel cars are in decline, the fall is far less noticeable in the used car market.
When used diesel car demand is combined with the reduction in supply the net result is the price of online B2C used diesel cars generally remains stable across all markets, according to INDICATA. But this high-level view needs to be considered carefully and explored to truly understand what is going on.

Diesel used values not collapsing
What is clear from a high level is that diesel used car values are not collapsing. Even in Germany, where a review of INDICATA’s MDS showed German dealers as having cleared out more stock than they may have needed to, used diesel car prices are rising, up 2.8% on average in Q2 2019 versus Q2 2018. In fact, online B2C used diesel car prices have risen two per cent over the first seven months of 2019 compared to a 3.5% fall in average used petrol car prices.
Average online B2C used diesel car prices are also up in France (+3.1%) for Q2 2019 compared to the same period last year. Whilst used diesel car values have remained almost flat in 2019 with just a 0.2% increase from January to July the situation for average online B2C used petrol car prices follows a similar but more severe pattern to what is happening in Germany, dropping 6.4% in seven months.

UK diesel prices fall whilst petrol jumps
The UK has seen average used diesel car prices fall by 1.1% in Q2 2019 to an average of £14,848 per car compared to £15,026 per car last year, whilst used petrol car prices have jumped up 3.6% in the same quarter hitting an average of £13,114 per unit in Q2 2019.
In general France and Spain both continue to show online B2C used car prices for petrol cars outperforming diesel whilst the other three markets show average online B2C used diesel cars doing better.

Spanish market provides greater insight in changing dynamics

Taking a deep dive into INDICATA’s data in Spain gives a little more insight into the changing market dynamics and why you should consider looking deeper to specific models before drawing too many conclusions.
Whilst both the B and C segments in Spain have shown healthy increases in the average used petrol prices for cars, the situation for J segment petrol SUVs is far less dramatic.

By July 2019 used B segment petrol cars were at 104% of the index point from a year earlier, whilst used C segment petrol cars fared even better, hitting 107%. But used petrol SUVs only saw a one per cent increase in their index value over the same period.
INDICATA’s used diesel car index values show an even more diverse pattern, with the J segment SUV’s index falling to 98%; B segment used diesel index falling to 99%; whilst the C segment used diesel index actually showed prices rising, albeit to just 101%.

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