NEWS

INDICATA Market Watch report tracks the pandemic’s impact on Europe’s used car industry

Mar 26, 2021   written by Autorola

While the Coronavirus pandemic continues to impact Europe’s used car market our Market Watch report provides dealers, OEMs and vehicle asset owners with valuable insights on how individual countries are being affected.

February’s markets continued to be impacted by various degrees but the big winner in every country is online selling of used cars. Online sales have become a key part of selling used cars through the crisis and going forward there is little evidence to support a full return to pre-crisis operating models.

Used car sales are down year-on-year
Overall February used car sales volumes reduced by 0.6% compared to January 2021 and year-on-year February 2021 used car sales were down 5.2% and 8.1% down year-to-date.

Here are some more highlights from our latest report:
  • Typical ex-fleet vehicles aged 3-5-years old are faring better than older used cars
  • Turkish market is showing the strains of a market returning to normality
  • Poland sees some tactical sales activity to try to fill supply constraints
  • Only France and Austria are showing tactical sales activity
  • Used petrol (-9%) and diesel cars (-11%) saw sharp falls in used car sales YoY but there are supply constraints in some markets
  • YoY used car sales increase for BEVs (+131%) and hybrids (+85%) as alternative powertrains become increasingly popular. BEV sales were up 7% month-on-month and hybrids up 9%
  • Total used car stock levels going into March 2021 are 3.2% lower than January but 6.2% higher than March 2020, and 12.3% above the same month in 2019
  • Stock turn for BEVs increases by 7% year-on-year as other powertrains sees a small fall
  • ICE vehicles (diesel 6.0x, petrol 5.3x) remain the fastest selling used cars
To receive your free copy of our 13-country 20-page report every month simply register at www.indicata.com/corona


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INDICATA launches 0km/pre-reg feature to help dealers track sales and prices of pre-registered cars

Mar 25, 2021   written by Autorola

INDICATA has launched a new 0km/pre-registered (pre-reg) feature on its used car valuations and sales insights portal to help dealers manage the growing number of cars being pre-registered in their individual markets.

As OEMs look to grow market shares with tactical dealer registrations, it is vital car dealers can initially price 0Km/pre-registrations correctly and continue to monitor the market to remain competitive as other dealers take pricing actions.

Tracking and valuing 0km/pre-reg cars
Generally, dealers aggressively discount 0km/pre reg cars to sell them quickly to avoid costly depreciation which is why being able to track and value these higher risk vehicles separately from the rest of their used stock is important.

This new functionality also allows a dealer to set up specific price strategies for different vehicle categories. INDICATA automatically tracks adverts within the category and now dealers can manually set age and/or mileage criteria that identifies vehicle categories.

Dealers no longer risk comparing a demo car against a pre-reg car
That means when dealers run their vehicle pricing comparisons against similar category vehicles, they do not risk comparing a demo car against a pre-reg car, or pre-reg car against a normal used vehicle. After all each category has a distinct pricing.

The INDICATA dashboard now identifies three types of used car category to help dealers accurately assess the value of their own stock and that of their local dealer rivals.

Three categories of used car
The INDICATA categories are:
  • 0km/pre-registered vehicles which have been registered by the dealer and sit on their forecourt but have never been driven
  • Demonstrator stock which generally has a few hundred kilometres on the clock and are a few months old
  • General dealer used car stock
Pre-reg and 0km cars can comprise 30% of dealer stock
Andy Shields, INDICATA’s business unit director said: “In some OEM brands and models, pre- registrations account for over 30% of new car sales, with 0km and pre-registrations becoming an important part of a dealer’s stock. Therefore, being able to use INDICATA to track values in real time will enable dealers to proactively manage their 0km, pre reg and demo vehicles more efficiently.”



For further information go to www.indicata.com

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INDICATA report sees European used car sales fall in January as dealers face pricing volatility

Feb 22, 2021   written by Autorola

Our INDICATA Market Watch insights report identified used car sales in Europe had fallen by 16.4% in January 2021 compared with January 2020.

Many of the 13 countries featured in the INDICATA report suffered Covid-19 lockdowns of some kind which compromised used sales, with the UK, Germany, Denmark, and Turkey the worse hit with sales down by 40.4%, 17.5%, 22.7% and 25.1% respectively.

BEVs are now in oversupply with prices starting to fall
The buying habits of consumers meanwhile continue to move towards low or zero emission used cars. Year-on-year sales of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and hybrids continued to grow, although BEVs are now in oversupply and stock turn has been struggling and prices have started to fall.

A strong end to 2020 helped dealers and traders clear out some stock, but weak January sales resulted in markets entering February 2021 with 10% or more cars in stock than a year earlier.

Supply shortages were most severe in Poland with used car sales eating into dealer stock resulting in a 11.1% drop at the start of February compared with a month earlier and a 15.8% decline compared to a year earlier.

Dealers are facing pricing challenges
With some country’s lockdown restrictions likely to be in place until at least May or until vaccination levels increase, dealers are having to balance reducing prices on stock for a quick sale with keeping their in-demand cars back until the market returns to some form of normality. For many dealers that job will be easier with INDICATA helping decide which cars to keep and which ones to sell.

“Andy Shields, INDICATA global business unit director said: “While we have seen sales fall in January, many countries are still busy selling used cars online to accommodate lockdown restrictions. It shows just how resilient the used car industry is.

“There is a growing volatility in the market pricing with some models rising and others falling. Dealers and remarketers need to keep a close eye model-by-model on market conditions to ensure their stock is priced correctly to avoid losing sales,” he added.

To download the full 20-page 13 country report go to www.indicata.com/corona 

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Used car sales in Germany, Austria, Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark start to recover, while prices remain static says Market Watch report

May 7, 2020   written by Autorola


Germany and Austria are the first countries where car dealers have exited a total lockdown caused by Covid-19 pandemic. They are seeing the used car sector quickly recover as consumers begin to treat themselves to new wheels according to our latest free-to-download INDICATA Market Watch insights report.
Germany has seen its used market recover to 90% of its March run rate and Austria 80% after dealers started trading again on the 20 and 14 April respectively, with sports cars the biggest growth sector in both countries as consumers treat themselves post lockdown.
Countries that experienced partial lockdowns such as the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark have also seen a return to 90%, 98% and 102% of pre-lockdown sales activity based on increased consumer activity and confidence.



Sweden, Denmark and Netherlands used car demand grows
In previous INDICATA reports Sweden had been the most resilient country in Europe, with the lightest lockdown. It has moved from 80% of previous sales levels, to 98% on 1 May.
In April Denmark trading volumes had dropped to circa 60% of March, but with progressive easing measures in place, the market has reactivated and risen to 102%. In Netherlands, consumer confidence is also returning with sales recovering to 90% of early March trends.

No major used price movements so far
But despite the sales growth there are still no significant price movements to report across Europe, even in newly opened markets. Sweden, the country most openly trading during the pandemic has only seen prices fall by 4.4%.
INDICATA is also yet to see a movement in large lockdown markets of Italy, Spain, France and UK. In smaller countries such as Portugal and Poland, and to a smaller degree, Belgium dealers appear to be increasingly breaking lockdown rules and selling used cars as consumer demand rises.

Petrol grows in popularity across Europe
One noticeable trend is the growth in popularity of used petrol, hybrid and electric cars at the expense of diesel over the past two months. All six countries on their recovery phase have seen a growth in petrol used cars. In Germany the swing from petrol to diesel was 6.2% and in Poland 9.8%. Sweden meanwhile has experienced a 30%+ growth in hybrid and electric volumes versus a 2% reduction in sales across its entire market.



INDICATA’s business unit director Andy Shields is keen to issue a word of caution for markets yet to exit lockdown.
“The trends we have seen in Germany and Austria are very positive but may not transfer to other markets based on a number of factors. They are both affluent countries with resilient economies and deep financial reserves.
“They have also experienced fewer infections and deaths which impact less on the consumer’s mindset, plus generally their lockdowns were shorter and shallower than other countries. Germany has a resilient economy as it proved during the 2009 recession where the used car market only fell by 5%. How large used car countries like the UK, France, Spain and Italy will bounce back is still too early to tell,” he said.
To download a free copy of Market Watch 4, go to http://www.indicata.com/corona

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INDICATA launches free Market Watch used data in 13 countries

Apr 7, 2020   written by Autorola

INDICATA has announced the launch of Market Watch, a two-tier free data source for remarketing professionals.
Market Watch features used car market volumes and pricing data in 13 individual countries and provides ongoing analysis and trends at macro and micro level to help manage issues such as the current Covid-19 pandemic.
Market Watch is available as a:
• Regular PDF hosted on individual INDICATA country websites
• Web-based market reporting tool for leasing, rental, OEM and dealer group decision makers
Market Watch has published its most recent data analysis focusing on the impact on used car sales in 13 European countries during March and on used prices during March and April.

Used car sales trends – Europe (6-31 March)
Our graph shows the stark difference between the markets in full lockdown, and those with some residual used car trading. Indexing from week one in March, the resilience of Sweden retaining 80% of its used car volumes and Turkey, Netherlands and Denmark (66% of volumes) contrasts with the lockdown countries where sales have dramatically fallen towards zero.



Used car price changes – Europe (1 Feb–3 April)
Our table shows how prices have changed between 1 February – 3 April using the INDICATA Market Watch benchmark car basket. The Netherlands used car pricing split by segment reinforces the power of Market Watch at a micro level.



The first interesting observation is the lack of overall price movement in some countries and a correlation with the introduction in social distancing.
Looking at UK, Spain, Austria, Italy and France, who went into lockdown with the fastest measures, dealers had minimal time to react before closure and experienced the fewest number of price changes.

Dealers had more time to react to market changes
Denmark, Belgium, Netherlands and Sweden progressed more slowly into social distancing and their volume falls were slower than other countries. As a result, dealers had time to react to market conditions by dropping prices.
Market Watch also looks at individual country data by sector or fuel type. For instance, small cars in the Netherlands sustained values initially better than larger vehicles, both from a € value and a percentage, typical of a market slide.

Turkey’s market price bubble
Turkey’s 7.5% rise appears to show remarkable growth, however, if we overlaid recent market growth rates, we would have expected a 10% rise. A move to used cars as ‘a safe asset’ fuelled by a new car sales fall and relatively cheap consumer finance potentially creates a market price bubble.
“Market Watch gives further support to the used car industry to help make sense of how to manage the impact of Covid-19. Our PDF and web portal provide used car decision makers with the best real time data to help build a short term and long-term strategy to efficiently manage used car supply and demand,” explained Andy Shields, INDICATA’s global business unit director.
Go to www.indicata.com/corona to sign up to your free PDF or web-based data feed.


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European used diesel supply falls while hybrid and EV demand and supply continues to grow

Nov 11, 2019   written by Dean Bowkett


In the used car market of Europe’s top five countries (Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy and Spain) plus Belgium, you can see from the INDICATA data in the chart above that used diesel car sales have been steadily losing market share to petrol cars since July 2019. When you factor in our other article on new car sales trends, supply will significantly reduce over the coming months and years but using INDICATA data we can see that demand is still there.
Used diesel car sales appeared to close the gap a little in September mainly due to used diesel fleet vehicles in the used car market. Petrol has now reversed the move to diesel and shows no sign of losing the top position in the next 4-5 years.



Gap between used diesel and petrol sales grows
The gap between used diesel and used petrol car sales was 1:1.01 in October 2018 according to INDICATA. Just one year later and it is 1:1.10 a 9% increase in just 12 months. The ratio is set to continue to widen, driven by the reduced supply from the new car market, but also due to demand changes, particularly amongst buyers of younger used vehicles who are making similar decisions on powertrain to new car buyers, particularly where they live near the growing number of clean air zones.
The total online B2C used car market is up 9.4% in October year-on-year. Despite diesel losing market share it still saw a 4.2% increase in volume with used petrol car sales up 13.1% over the same period.

Used hybrid sales grow by an additional 8,742 cars
The growth in new hybrid sales over the last few years is also now impacting the used car market with hybrid sales up from a 1.6% market share in October 2018 to 2.2% one year later. In volume terms that’s an increase of 50.3% or an additional 8,742 used hybrid cars.
With new car sales of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) falling we could see used PHEV values starting to rise as increased demand is met with a reduced supply.

Used EVs volumes rise by 55.5%
Over the last 12 months EVs haven’t managed to take more than a 0.4% market share. Whilst there is only a relatively small supply of used EVs available, due to limited sales in the new car market, the reality seems to be that demand is also low. In growth terms the volume of EVs sold in the online B2C used car market has risen by 55.5%, but that still equates to just 5,195 cars sold across the six countries in October 2019. 
We have seen the new car market hit by yet more bad diesel media coverage and legislative actions but INDICATA’s data is showing demand for used diesel cars remains strong. You will need to subscribe to INDICATA’s data to get the full lowdown but used diesel car sales are rising.
Used diesel prices are actually outperforming used petrol prices over the last 12 months in Germany, France, Spain and Belgium, and in all six markets reviewed in this article used diesel car stock levels are selling faster than used petrol car stock.

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Andy Shields appointed as INDICATA’s new business unit director

Nov 11, 2019   written by Autorola


Andy Shields has been appointed as business unit director of INDICATA, the global leaders in used vehicle pricing and market analysis.
Andy will have responsibility for INDICATA which is currently in 14 countries.
Andy said, ‘I am very familiar with INDICATA having used it extensively throughout my career both during my time at Avis Europe and whilst consulting for OEMs and major dealer groups.’

Supporting asset managers implement change
‘As a global leader in real time, used car pricing it is not just about data provision but supporting asset managers to implement ongoing pricing management, where the whole organisation embraces and executes it from sales executives to the CEO,’ he added.

Full data integration with Sofico
Andy recently supported VW Bank GmbH leasing company VWFS Ireland’s adoption of Sofico’s Miles lease management system.
Andy said: ‘As I join INDICATA, I am delighted we have announced full data integration into Sofico across all 14 countries. This contributes real time pricing insights at individual vehicle and portfolio levels for Sofico leasing and finance customers.’
Prior to joining INDICATA, Andy held roles such as director of fleet and remarketing at Avis Europe, VP sales and supply for an online car supermarket, and spent 10 years consulting for OEMs, dealer groups and leasing companies.

INDICATA transforms used-car decision making power
Peter Grøftehauge, Autorola Group’s CEO said: “INDICATA has made excellent inroads into providing data that transforms company’s business revenues and used car decision-making power.
‘Andy’s vast experience in used cars, e-commerce and finance means he has a perfect combination of skills for his new role as head of INDICATA.”

For more information, please contact Andrew Shields, Business , Mobile: +44 0 77 75 844 311, Email: ads@indicata.com

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Tracking the new car winners and losers across Europe by fuel type

Nov 11, 2019   written by Dean Bowkett


In the first 9 months of 2019 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) sales grew in Europe by 93.1% but this still equates to just 2.1% of the total new car market. Hybrid vehicles have also grown by a healthy 42.7% in the first half of 2019 and now account for just over 5.5% of new car sales.
Other powertrains such as Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) have seen their market share hold at around 1.6%, mainly due to its popularity in Italy. However, Plug-in Hybrid EVs (PHEVs) have seen sales drop by 12.7%, accounting for just 1% of the new car market across Europe for the first 9 months of 2019. The decline in demand from fleet operators is part of the reason.

Fleets see increased costs of fuelling PHEVs
Several countries have or had a beneficial taxation system for company drivers choosing a PHEV over a diesel vehicle, making them a popular choice from a personal perspective. However, fleet operators noticed a significant increase in fuel costs as drivers were commonly not charging them, just using them as a petrol vehicle. This meant cars were performing worse than a straight petrol version of the car as the PHEV also boasted added battery weight.
Feedback from auction houses like Autorola confirmed that many PHEVs were coming off fleet having never been charged and with the charging cable still in its original sealed bag.

Bristol city centre moves sets a worrying precedent
On 5th November the UK port town of Bristol became Europe’s first city to approve a ban on all privately-owned diesel cars from 2021 between the hours of 7am and 3pm every day.
Whilst Clean Air Zones (CAZs) are appearing across Europe, the difference here is that the local council has not distinguished the considerable difference between old, high emission diesels of the past and new, clean, Euro 6 engines with little to no NOx and low CO2 emissions. The full details of the fines and charges have yet to be published but the ban includes parts of the city centre as well as the nearby M32 motorway.
We will need to wait until February 2020 to see if the national government approves the business plan, which is predicted to cost £113.5 million, but it does set a worrying precedent.



INDICATA sees impact on new and used diesel market

Some cities already have bans or restrictions on older diesel cars, pre-Euro 6, whilst Oslo has legislation in place to ban all diesel cars from certain roads on days with acute levels of air pollution. This progression to a blanket ban on all diesels will impact the new and used diesel car market as INDICATA data is seeing.
Despite reports and data about how clean the latest Euro 6 diesel engines are, the press continues to use the phrase “Dirty Diesel” with gusto, whilst politicians and lobbyists continue to talk about introducing more clean air zones. The message received by many drivers and consumers is a clear one to “not buy diesel.”
The high-level view is that drivers would choose electric or hybrid vehicles, the reality is most lost diesel sales have gone to petrol engine cars.

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European used EV/hybrid stock levels rise while diesel stocks fall

Oct 24, 2019   written by Dean Bowkett

The increased number of new hybrid and EV cars registered over the past few years is now flowing through into the used car market according to the latest market insights data from Indicata for the five largest European countries plus Belgium.
Stock levels of hybrids have jumped 72% in the last twelve months whilst EV stock levels have more than doubled, jumping 220% although both are seeing longer stocking days as demand fails to keep up with supply.

Used diesels/petrol demand outweighs EVs/hybrids
When combining Indicata sales and stock data there is good EV and hybrid availability, but demand remains strongest for the traditional internal combustion engine.
Data from October 2018 to September 2019 shows online B2C used car stock levels are up 4.9% across all powertrains in September 2019 compared to the same period last year.

Dealers de-stock used diesels at a fast rate
Dealers appear to be de-stocking used diesel cars at a faster rate than demand is changing, but diesel remains the fastest selling powertrain. Used petrol car stock has also risen by 14% as dealers move away from used diesels.
Used car prices and demand for used diesels is still relatively strong according to Indicata, however, dealer stock levels are down 7.5% in September 2019 compared with 2018.

Petrol accounts for 51.6% of used stock
Used diesel cars now comprise just 43.8% of online B2C used car stock, versus 49.7% 12 months ago while used petrol car stock now accounts for 51.6% of Europe’s total used stock.
While it may seem a logical move for dealers to de-stock used diesel cars the reality is there are only enough used diesel cars to cover 58.9 days of demand at current run rates compared to 63.1 days of used petrol cars.

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INDICATA tracking used car markets across Europe

Sep 17, 2019   written by Dean Bowkett


Whilst the five largest car markets are key countries to track across the industry for the major international automotive companies, it is also worth monitoring trends across the rest of Europe. A sneak preview at INDICATA’s average stock days by age across multiple markets shows the diversity of stock across Europe.
The next three largest car markets in Europe after the big five and in order of forecast new car sales for 2019 are Poland, Belgium and the Netherlands where a combined 1.46 million new cars are likely to be sold this year, which is more than Spain. These three countries account for significant amounts of used car exports and, in the case of Poland, also imports across the whole of Europe.



Considerable disparity across smaller markets
There is considerable disparity across these smaller markets. Austria, the Netherlands and Sweden have significant levels of younger aged stock of one to two-year-old used vehicles compared to Belgium and Poland where it is the 25 to 36-month-old vehicles which are currently proving the hardest to sell.
Before considering cross-border trading between any market it is a key requirement to understand if you are moving stock into or out of a country at the right time. Whilst you may consider this is possible to do at a very high level, the INDICATA data shows that once you start dissecting different markets by vehicle age, segment type, fuel, body style and make or model mistakes can be made, and opportunities missed.
The daily rental market in Spain and the fleet markets in countries like Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK export tens and even hundreds of thousands of used cars each year and identifying where the biggest demand could be for a particular vehicle could transform a company’s bottom line profitability.

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