NEWS

INDICATA Netherlands has published a new White Paper on the impact of abolishing the LCV entrepreneurs’ exemption set for introduction in January 2025

Apr 26, 2024   written by Autorola


The Netherlands is due to abolish the “entrepreneur’s exemption” on the BPM tax applied to Light Commercial Vehicles, from January 2025, with the sole exception of electric LCVs.

This is a move which will see all new petrol and diesel vans subject to the same taxation as passenger vehicles and will increase the sale price of new LCVs by an average of 12,300 EUR across the country’s best-selling models.

INDICATA has published a white paper looking at the potential effects of this change on the used van market in the Netherlands. These predictions are based on its data from Austria in 2021, which underwent a similarly large taxation shift, when it introduced the NOVA luxury tax on new LCVs in 2021.

What happened to the used LCV market in Austria?

The Austrian NOVA tax was introduced in 2021, on a lower rate which has increased annually since then, and which reaches its peak and perpetual rate in 2025. This introduction coincided with the international microprocessor shortage, which saw used vehicle values rise across the board, so it was important for INDICATA to take this into account to determine the true impact of NOVA on used values.

When the effects of the shortage were subtracted from the market data, it was revealed that for each increase in NOVA rates, the used LCV market saw a price increase of 2.5%, or a predicted 12.5% overall increase over five years.

What might happen to LCV values in The Netherlands?

The immediate increase in new LCV prices is likely to have a negative impact on sales, as businesses are likely to try and run their existing vehicles for as long as possible to avoid the tax. This in turn should result in an increase in used LCV prices across The Netherlands.

As such, the prediction for used LCV prices after the tax introduction is that market values will rise between 8 and 12.5% overall in 2025.

What is the future for LCVs in The Netherlands?

With the introduction of the new taxation on internal combustion LCVs in The Netherlands, combined with the increasing number of zero emissions zones across the country, which bans combustion engines within 20 municipalities in 2025, there is likely to be a surge in the take-up of electric LCVs instead.

A major ‘problem factor’ might be the weight of eLCVs, which, if plated at 4.25 tonnes GVW, will mean many current drivers of LCVs will be unable to drive eLCVs due to the weight restrictions on licences.

While businesses will be able to invest in the training and testing of drivers to enable them to drive these heavier vehicles, a preferable alternative would be to match the legislation found in the UK, which gives dispensation to drivers of electric vehicles to operate heavier vehicles. This aims to encourage the take up of eLCVs, alongside other taxation and legislative incentives.

To read the full white paper, please download a copy at LCVs Market Watch White Paper (indicata.com)

For a full copy of the white paper go to www.indicata.com

INDICATA UK has published a white paper which shows how used BEV and ICE cars are reaching price parity for the very first time

Apr 26, 2024   written by Autorola

 

Prices of some used BEVs and ICE cars started to reach price parity in Q1 2024 according to INDICATA UK’s white paper.

Entitled ‘Reaching used BEV and ICE car price parity’ the white paper tracks the used retail car prices of all fuel types in the UK from 2020-2024, and importantly the highs and lows of used BEVs.

This includes using INDICATA data to track used prices of five popular BEVs from Citroen, MG, Vauxhall, Peugeot and Hyundai against their equivalent ICE models during 2023 and 2024.

BEV ICE price parity fuels demand

“Price parity is vital for BEVs in the used market as consumers are now being offered all the latest fuel types at similar prices, where before used BEVs were commanding a 25-30% price premium which put buyers off going electric,” explained Dean Merritt, INDICATA UK’s head of sales.

“Price parity is fuelling demand just as the volumes of used BEVs, particularly ex-fleet cars, are increasing which is good news for the entire industry,” he added.

The INDICATA white paper shows prices of used BEVs peaking in Q3 2022 where demand and the chip shortage weakened supply. Prices then fell as OEMs pushed discounted new and nearly new used BEVs into the market coinciding with rising volumes of two and three-year ex-PCP, leasing and salary sacrifice BEVs. This caused prices to crash by over 30% in 2023.

In Q1 2024 there were signs that used BEV prices were stabilising as prices fell by just 1.3% during the three-month period, helping close the gap between BEV and ICE prices as INDICATA’s data reveals.

Peugeot 208 BEV v 208 petrol two years and 20,000 miles

Peugeot 208 BEV and petrol models reached price parity in June 2023 at which point BEVs became worth more than equivalent petrol models. That is how it stayed until both fuel types reached price parity again in March 2024 at £14,250.

Vauxhall Corsa BEV v Corsa diesel – two years and 20,000 miles

From January 2023 the Corsa BEV was worth more than the equivalent diesel model by around £7,000. As of March 2024, the diesel Corsa was worth £16,000 and the Corsa BEV £15,250, which reflects how far market prices have moved on certain models in a brief period of time.

MG ZS BEV v ZS petrol – two years and 20,000 miles

Electric ZS prices have been consistently ahead of used ZS petrol prices by around £1,250 since June 2023. This trend has continued into 2024 with the ZS BEV worth £15,000 compared with £13,750 for the petrol model.

Citroen C4 BEV v C4 diesel two years and 20,000 miles

The Citroen C4 BEV reached price parity with its diesel equivalent in May 2023 at £17,400 but prices continued to fall. As of March 2024, BEVs were worth £14,200 against £16,200 for the equivalent diesel.

Hyundai Kona BEV v Kona petrol – two years and 20,000 miles

Hyundai’s strong zero emission reputation meant drivers paid more for used Kona BEVs during 2023. That trend continued into 2024, with Kona BEVs worth £19,700, £4,700 more than the equivalent petrol model.

“Some brands have already built up a strong BEV reputation and drivers are prepared to pay more for them than ICE cars, but generally our data shows prices have moved much closer together. In the case of Peugeot 208 BEV and petrol models, prices were identical at the end of March 2024 while there was just a few hundred pounds difference between the Corsa BEV and diesel models at the same age and mileage,” said Merritt.

For a full copy of the white paper go to www.indicata.com

INDICATA’s latest Market Watch report shows used BEV sales continuing to fall across Europe

Feb 29, 2024   written by Autorola

 

Used BEV sales continue to fall across Europe according to INDICATA’s latest Market Watch used car insights report, while Market Days’ Supply of BEVs is now double that of ICE cars.

Consumers appear to be looking to used hybrids as their first step towards zero emissions rather than moving directly from ICE to BEV.

 

Diesel sales continue to fall alongside BEV across Europe

 Diesel vehicles have fallen in market share across Europe, and now account for just 21.7% for vehicles under four years of age. At the same time, BEVs have also dropped in their market share and now make up 4.11% of the online used B2C used vehicle market.

 

Hybrid powertrains continue to increase in popularity

A rapid rise in the popularity of hybrid powertrains across European markets has seen this vehicle type rising to an all-time high of 15.29% of the used car market. Within this, the more traditional plug-in hybrid and hybrid electric vehicles remain the most popular but are closely followed by mild hybrid vehicle types.

 

It is reasoned that this rise in popularity is down to consumers wanting hybrid vehicles as an interim step before the adoption of pure battery electric vehicles, with buyers remaining unsure about transitioning to a purely battery-powered vehicle, without the aid of an internal combustion motor alongside it.

 

Petrol remains the fuel of choice for buyers

Petrol vehicles accounted for more than 44% of used vehicle sales in Europe in January, and have outperformed BEV and hybrids in value retention, remaining level with diesel in this regard. Petrol vehicles have seen a slightly longer Market Days’ Supply than diesels (67 and 65 days respectively) however these are outperforming BEV significantly by almost 50 days.

 

New car supply has returned to pre-pandemic levels

With the semiconductor shortage now over, and new vehicle sales returning to normal, the market has seen a return of manufacturer-backed tactical sales, with pre-registered and nearly new used-cars now re-entering the market in increasing volumes, with a more than 7% month on month rise having been observed.

 

Fastest and best-selling vehicles
January’s top selling vehicle (up to 4 years old) in Europe was the Volkswagen Golf, while the best-selling hybrid vehicle was the Ford Puma, and the best-selling BEV was the Renault Zoe. The fastest-selling vehicle overall was the Toyota Prius+ hybrid, followed by the ICE Opel Corsa, while the Opel Mokka X was the fastest selling BEV.



To read the full details of the report and learn more about each territory in depth, please view the latest Indicata report which is available now. https://www.indicata.com/marketwatch

INDICATA celebrates the launch of its new Forecasting product

Dec 12, 2023   written by Autorola

 

The Netherlands has published a new White Paper that predicts how a peak in Tesla Model 3s registered in 2019 will impact the used market during 2024 and 2025

Our new INDICATA Forecasting product is set to be launched in Europe during 2024 which aims to support major fleets, banks, finance houses and dealer groups in proactively identifying and then managing the impact of future residual value trends.

 

The Netherlands has recently used its powerful data to confirm that past registration peaks of the Mitsubishi Outlander and Tesla Model S have led to oversupply of used cars in the future market. This oversupply happened typically around five years after the peak and there is a strong correlation with a fall in used prices.

 

The most recent example of this trend is the large number of Tesla Model 3s that were registered in 2019 in The Netherlands that are expected to hit the used market starting in 2024 and peaking during 2025.

 

Negative pressure on prices

As the price of used BEVs has already dropped significantly in the country over the last 12 months, we expect an additional negative pressure of up to 25 per cent on Tesla Model 3 used values.

 

This impact is expected to be tempered by the intense competitiveness of Teslas in the used market relative to their ICE competitors. The oversupply in The Netherlands will potentially result in the export of used Teslas into other European markets that have a more mature demand from private customers for zero emission vehicles.

 

Creating the Tesla Model 3 factor

In our INDICATA Forecasting model we created the “Tesla Model 3” factor which consists of three tiers with each separate one having an impact of different kinds on used BEVs. This impact starts just before the major de-fleet of Tesla Model 3 at the end of 2024 and is set to impact the BEVs for approximately 12 months.

 

Graph 6 shows the life cycle decay of the different tiers. The upcoming peak for the Tesla Model 3s will have a major impact on the residual values of the car. Due to the huge number of cars returning from lease contracts, the entire electric car market will be impacted not just that of the Tesla Model 3.

 

Reviewing and analysing prices and supply

We plan to constantly review and analyse relative prices and supply over the coming months and years.

 

A full copy of the 13-page white paper entitled Assessing the future impact of Tesla Model 3 de-fleet volumes is available by contacting Frank Tanke, Netherlands Country Manager on ft@autorola.nl or the INDICATA NL support team at support@indicata.nl.

INDICATA Market Watch report tracks the pandemic’s impact on Europe’s used car industry

Mar 26, 2021   written by Autorola

While the Coronavirus pandemic continues to impact Europe’s used car market our Market Watch report provides dealers, OEMs and vehicle asset owners with valuable insights on how individual countries are being affected.

February’s markets continued to be impacted by various degrees but the big winner in every country is online selling of used cars. Online sales have become a key part of selling used cars through the crisis and going forward there is little evidence to support a full return to pre-crisis operating models.

Used car sales are down year-on-year
Overall February used car sales volumes reduced by 0.6% compared to January 2021 and year-on-year February 2021 used car sales were down 5.2% and 8.1% down year-to-date.

Here are some more highlights from our latest report:
  • Typical ex-fleet vehicles aged 3-5-years old are faring better than older used cars
  • Turkish market is showing the strains of a market returning to normality
  • Poland sees some tactical sales activity to try to fill supply constraints
  • Only France and Austria are showing tactical sales activity
  • Used petrol (-9%) and diesel cars (-11%) saw sharp falls in used car sales YoY but there are supply constraints in some markets
  • YoY used car sales increase for BEVs (+131%) and hybrids (+85%) as alternative powertrains become increasingly popular. BEV sales were up 7% month-on-month and hybrids up 9%
  • Total used car stock levels going into March 2021 are 3.2% lower than January but 6.2% higher than March 2020, and 12.3% above the same month in 2019
  • Stock turn for BEVs increases by 7% year-on-year as other powertrains sees a small fall
  • ICE vehicles (diesel 6.0x, petrol 5.3x) remain the fastest selling used cars
To receive your free copy of our 13-country 20-page report every month simply register at www.indicata.com/corona


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INDICATA launches 0km/pre-reg feature to help dealers track sales and prices of pre-registered cars

Mar 25, 2021   written by Autorola

INDICATA has launched a new 0km/pre-registered (pre-reg) feature on its used car valuations and sales insights portal to help dealers manage the growing number of cars being pre-registered in their individual markets.

As OEMs look to grow market shares with tactical dealer registrations, it is vital car dealers can initially price 0Km/pre-registrations correctly and continue to monitor the market to remain competitive as other dealers take pricing actions.

Tracking and valuing 0km/pre-reg cars
Generally, dealers aggressively discount 0km/pre reg cars to sell them quickly to avoid costly depreciation which is why being able to track and value these higher risk vehicles separately from the rest of their used stock is important.

This new functionality also allows a dealer to set up specific price strategies for different vehicle categories. INDICATA automatically tracks adverts within the category and now dealers can manually set age and/or mileage criteria that identifies vehicle categories.

Dealers no longer risk comparing a demo car against a pre-reg car
That means when dealers run their vehicle pricing comparisons against similar category vehicles, they do not risk comparing a demo car against a pre-reg car, or pre-reg car against a normal used vehicle. After all each category has a distinct pricing.

The INDICATA dashboard now identifies three types of used car category to help dealers accurately assess the value of their own stock and that of their local dealer rivals.

Three categories of used car
The INDICATA categories are:
  • 0km/pre-registered vehicles which have been registered by the dealer and sit on their forecourt but have never been driven
  • Demonstrator stock which generally has a few hundred kilometres on the clock and are a few months old
  • General dealer used car stock
Pre-reg and 0km cars can comprise 30% of dealer stock
Andy Shields, INDICATA’s business unit director said: “In some OEM brands and models, pre- registrations account for over 30% of new car sales, with 0km and pre-registrations becoming an important part of a dealer’s stock. Therefore, being able to use INDICATA to track values in real time will enable dealers to proactively manage their 0km, pre reg and demo vehicles more efficiently.”



For further information go to www.indicata.com

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INDICATA report sees European used car sales fall in January as dealers face pricing volatility

Feb 22, 2021   written by Autorola

Our INDICATA Market Watch insights report identified used car sales in Europe had fallen by 16.4% in January 2021 compared with January 2020.

Many of the 13 countries featured in the INDICATA report suffered Covid-19 lockdowns of some kind which compromised used sales, with the UK, Germany, Denmark, and Turkey the worse hit with sales down by 40.4%, 17.5%, 22.7% and 25.1% respectively.

BEVs are now in oversupply with prices starting to fall
The buying habits of consumers meanwhile continue to move towards low or zero emission used cars. Year-on-year sales of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and hybrids continued to grow, although BEVs are now in oversupply and stock turn has been struggling and prices have started to fall.

A strong end to 2020 helped dealers and traders clear out some stock, but weak January sales resulted in markets entering February 2021 with 10% or more cars in stock than a year earlier.

Supply shortages were most severe in Poland with used car sales eating into dealer stock resulting in a 11.1% drop at the start of February compared with a month earlier and a 15.8% decline compared to a year earlier.

Dealers are facing pricing challenges
With some country’s lockdown restrictions likely to be in place until at least May or until vaccination levels increase, dealers are having to balance reducing prices on stock for a quick sale with keeping their in-demand cars back until the market returns to some form of normality. For many dealers that job will be easier with INDICATA helping decide which cars to keep and which ones to sell.

“Andy Shields, INDICATA global business unit director said: “While we have seen sales fall in January, many countries are still busy selling used cars online to accommodate lockdown restrictions. It shows just how resilient the used car industry is.

“There is a growing volatility in the market pricing with some models rising and others falling. Dealers and remarketers need to keep a close eye model-by-model on market conditions to ensure their stock is priced correctly to avoid losing sales,” he added.

To download the full 20-page 13 country report go to www.indicata.com/corona 

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Used car sales in Germany, Austria, Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark start to recover, while prices remain static says Market Watch report

May 7, 2020   written by Autorola


Germany and Austria are the first countries where car dealers have exited a total lockdown caused by Covid-19 pandemic. They are seeing the used car sector quickly recover as consumers begin to treat themselves to new wheels according to our latest free-to-download INDICATA Market Watch insights report.
Germany has seen its used market recover to 90% of its March run rate and Austria 80% after dealers started trading again on the 20 and 14 April respectively, with sports cars the biggest growth sector in both countries as consumers treat themselves post lockdown.
Countries that experienced partial lockdowns such as the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark have also seen a return to 90%, 98% and 102% of pre-lockdown sales activity based on increased consumer activity and confidence.



Sweden, Denmark and Netherlands used car demand grows
In previous INDICATA reports Sweden had been the most resilient country in Europe, with the lightest lockdown. It has moved from 80% of previous sales levels, to 98% on 1 May.
In April Denmark trading volumes had dropped to circa 60% of March, but with progressive easing measures in place, the market has reactivated and risen to 102%. In Netherlands, consumer confidence is also returning with sales recovering to 90% of early March trends.

No major used price movements so far
But despite the sales growth there are still no significant price movements to report across Europe, even in newly opened markets. Sweden, the country most openly trading during the pandemic has only seen prices fall by 4.4%.
INDICATA is also yet to see a movement in large lockdown markets of Italy, Spain, France and UK. In smaller countries such as Portugal and Poland, and to a smaller degree, Belgium dealers appear to be increasingly breaking lockdown rules and selling used cars as consumer demand rises.

Petrol grows in popularity across Europe
One noticeable trend is the growth in popularity of used petrol, hybrid and electric cars at the expense of diesel over the past two months. All six countries on their recovery phase have seen a growth in petrol used cars. In Germany the swing from petrol to diesel was 6.2% and in Poland 9.8%. Sweden meanwhile has experienced a 30%+ growth in hybrid and electric volumes versus a 2% reduction in sales across its entire market.



INDICATA’s business unit director Andy Shields is keen to issue a word of caution for markets yet to exit lockdown.
“The trends we have seen in Germany and Austria are very positive but may not transfer to other markets based on a number of factors. They are both affluent countries with resilient economies and deep financial reserves.
“They have also experienced fewer infections and deaths which impact less on the consumer’s mindset, plus generally their lockdowns were shorter and shallower than other countries. Germany has a resilient economy as it proved during the 2009 recession where the used car market only fell by 5%. How large used car countries like the UK, France, Spain and Italy will bounce back is still too early to tell,” he said.
To download a free copy of Market Watch 4, go to http://www.indicata.com/corona

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INDICATA launches free Market Watch used data in 13 countries

Apr 7, 2020   written by Autorola

INDICATA has announced the launch of Market Watch, a two-tier free data source for remarketing professionals.
Market Watch features used car market volumes and pricing data in 13 individual countries and provides ongoing analysis and trends at macro and micro level to help manage issues such as the current Covid-19 pandemic.
Market Watch is available as a:
• Regular PDF hosted on individual INDICATA country websites
• Web-based market reporting tool for leasing, rental, OEM and dealer group decision makers
Market Watch has published its most recent data analysis focusing on the impact on used car sales in 13 European countries during March and on used prices during March and April.

Used car sales trends – Europe (6-31 March)
Our graph shows the stark difference between the markets in full lockdown, and those with some residual used car trading. Indexing from week one in March, the resilience of Sweden retaining 80% of its used car volumes and Turkey, Netherlands and Denmark (66% of volumes) contrasts with the lockdown countries where sales have dramatically fallen towards zero.



Used car price changes – Europe (1 Feb–3 April)
Our table shows how prices have changed between 1 February – 3 April using the INDICATA Market Watch benchmark car basket. The Netherlands used car pricing split by segment reinforces the power of Market Watch at a micro level.



The first interesting observation is the lack of overall price movement in some countries and a correlation with the introduction in social distancing.
Looking at UK, Spain, Austria, Italy and France, who went into lockdown with the fastest measures, dealers had minimal time to react before closure and experienced the fewest number of price changes.

Dealers had more time to react to market changes
Denmark, Belgium, Netherlands and Sweden progressed more slowly into social distancing and their volume falls were slower than other countries. As a result, dealers had time to react to market conditions by dropping prices.
Market Watch also looks at individual country data by sector or fuel type. For instance, small cars in the Netherlands sustained values initially better than larger vehicles, both from a € value and a percentage, typical of a market slide.

Turkey’s market price bubble
Turkey’s 7.5% rise appears to show remarkable growth, however, if we overlaid recent market growth rates, we would have expected a 10% rise. A move to used cars as ‘a safe asset’ fuelled by a new car sales fall and relatively cheap consumer finance potentially creates a market price bubble.
“Market Watch gives further support to the used car industry to help make sense of how to manage the impact of Covid-19. Our PDF and web portal provide used car decision makers with the best real time data to help build a short term and long-term strategy to efficiently manage used car supply and demand,” explained Andy Shields, INDICATA’s global business unit director.
Go to www.indicata.com/corona to sign up to your free PDF or web-based data feed.


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European used diesel supply falls while hybrid and EV demand and supply continues to grow

Nov 11, 2019   written by Autorola


In the used car market of Europe’s top five countries (Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy and Spain) plus Belgium, you can see from the INDICATA data in the chart above that used diesel car sales have been steadily losing market share to petrol cars since July 2019. When you factor in our other article on new car sales trends, supply will significantly reduce over the coming months and years but using INDICATA data we can see that demand is still there.
Used diesel car sales appeared to close the gap a little in September mainly due to used diesel fleet vehicles in the used car market. Petrol has now reversed the move to diesel and shows no sign of losing the top position in the next 4-5 years.



Gap between used diesel and petrol sales grows
The gap between used diesel and used petrol car sales was 1:1.01 in October 2018 according to INDICATA. Just one year later and it is 1:1.10 a 9% increase in just 12 months. The ratio is set to continue to widen, driven by the reduced supply from the new car market, but also due to demand changes, particularly amongst buyers of younger used vehicles who are making similar decisions on powertrain to new car buyers, particularly where they live near the growing number of clean air zones.
The total online B2C used car market is up 9.4% in October year-on-year. Despite diesel losing market share it still saw a 4.2% increase in volume with used petrol car sales up 13.1% over the same period.

Used hybrid sales grow by an additional 8,742 cars
The growth in new hybrid sales over the last few years is also now impacting the used car market with hybrid sales up from a 1.6% market share in October 2018 to 2.2% one year later. In volume terms that’s an increase of 50.3% or an additional 8,742 used hybrid cars.
With new car sales of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) falling we could see used PHEV values starting to rise as increased demand is met with a reduced supply.

Used EVs volumes rise by 55.5%
Over the last 12 months EVs haven’t managed to take more than a 0.4% market share. Whilst there is only a relatively small supply of used EVs available, due to limited sales in the new car market, the reality seems to be that demand is also low. In growth terms the volume of EVs sold in the online B2C used car market has risen by 55.5%, but that still equates to just 5,195 cars sold across the six countries in October 2019. 
We have seen the new car market hit by yet more bad diesel media coverage and legislative actions but INDICATA’s data is showing demand for used diesel cars remains strong. You will need to subscribe to INDICATA’s data to get the full lowdown but used diesel car sales are rising.
Used diesel prices are actually outperforming used petrol prices over the last 12 months in Germany, France, Spain and Belgium, and in all six markets reviewed in this article used diesel car stock levels are selling faster than used petrol car stock.

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